The Wild Ride

With less than two weeks left in the 2012 Campaign, the polls are not helping in making things clearer.  As mentioned earlier, Gallup and IBD have tracking polls running on opposite sides of the race (Currently Romney +5 and Obama +2 respectively), while other National polls are showing points in between, although most are slightly toward Romney or Tied.

State polls are no better.  For example in New Hampshire the current RCP average includes 5 polls, with Romney leading 3 of them, one Tied, and the 5th from UNH showing Obama up 9.  Is the trend toward Romney, with UNH an outlier, or is the UNH poll the true one?

Meanwhile 7 Ohio polls are showing the race anywhere from tied to Obama +5 (none favor Romney at this point.)  Virginia is tied in the average, but shows Romney ahead in 3 polls +3, +1, +1, and Obama +5 in the 4th.  Florida ranges from Romney +5 to Obama +1.  Colorado ranges from Romney +4 to Obama +3.  Iowa goes from Romney +1, to Obama +8 with two ties.   Wisconsin all favor Obama from +1 to +6.  Nevada may be the most stable at this point only ranging from Obama +2 to Obama +4.

If the polls remain this way, this election may become the most difficult to project prior to the election.  Election Night could become another wild ride, similar to 2000.