10/10 Poll Watch

The Real Clear Politics Average seems to be what everyone is watching to determine the Presidential Race.

The real battle is in the electoral college, and a couple of handfuls of states looked like they would decide it.   Recently before the debate, Ohio moved to the Obama Column and Missouri moved away from Romney to Toss up, giving Obama a lead of 269-181 (270 are needed to win) in Leaning or Likely states.  Following the debate, Ohio moved quickly back to Toss Up.

On Wednesday however, RCP moved 3 states to Toss Up from Leaning Obama.  Two of those states weren't too surprising:  Wisconsin (10 EV) and New Hampshire (4 EV).  But Pennsylvania was a surprise at least this early.  Pennsylvania's 20 EV could help Romney especially if he were to lose Ohio, which most pundits say he will lose the election if he doesn't get Ohio.  But if Pennsylvania is seriously in play, (and also possibly Michigan with 16 EV) then Romney has a much easier path to the Electoral Win.

Currently RCP shows it at 217-181 with 11 states toss up with 140 EV total.   Romney is already leading in North Carolina (15) and Missouri (10) So add 25 to Romney giving him 206.  Colorado is leaning his way also, so bring him up to 215-217 with 8 states and 106 EV's left.  Whoever ends up with Florida's 29 EV's is within 26 EV's of the Presidency (24 for Obama).  The other could offset Florida by taking Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10) and Iowa (6) OR Nevada (6).  Let's then say Romney takes Pennsylvania and Obama takes Ohio, making it a EV tie at 264.  It then comes down to Nevada or Iowa's 6 EV's and New Hampshire's 4.

If I had to guess though, I would say the same person will take Ohio AND Pennsylvania.  Let's say that is Obama and Romney gets Florida.  Romney would need 35 of the remaining 48 EV's to win.

It should be interesting to follow these toss up states over the next few weeks.  I see Michigan coming into toss up status at least briefly as soon as additional polls are released.