In my earlier post, I went throught the steps to how Trump picked up the Electoral Votes needed to win the Election over where Romney stood in 2012.
The common refrain after the election was that the polls were all wrong. But were they?
Let's look at the polls from RealClearPolitics. On Election Day the final projections were 203 For Clinton/Kaine and 164 for Trump/Pence with 14 states as well as 1 of the Maine Congressional districts a toss up. These total 171 Electoral Votes.
Solid states were 115 to 63 Clinton over Trump
Likely states were 92 to 53 Trump over Clinton
Leaning States were 35 to 9 Clinton over Trump
Of these states only Wisconsin was picked incorrectly. During the campaign Clinton consistently polled at +5 or better with the final RCP Average coming in at 6.5. Trump finished +0.7 which was outside the Margin of Error of all of the final polls which ranged from 1.9-4.9 points.
Keep in mind the Margin of Error is the 95% certainty that the result is within + or - the value and the MoE.
Clearly either sampling in Wisconsin was bad or a lot of people changed their minds in the final week.
Now let's look at the overall result or what is known as the Popular Vote. RCP Polls showed Clinton anywhere between 6 points up and 2 points down (1 poll). The average was 3.3 points, the final result was Clinton +2.1. The result was within the MoE of all the polls except for IBD/TIPP Tracking (Clinton +1.1 to Trump +5.1) Gravis (Clinton +5 to +3) and Economist/YouGov (which shows Clinton +4 with no MoE) It should be noted that Rasmussen polling showed Clinton +2 which was the closest raw score to the final result.
The national polls were pretty much right on.
As for the Toss Up states I find it interesting to look at the RCP "No Toss Up" Map While many websites were predicting a 70%-80% or more probability of a win for Clinton, this map clearly showed a close race and one or two states could swing the results.
With No Toss ups, RCP showed Clinton winning 272 to 266. But here is what everyone in the press ignored:
On October 16th, three days before the last debate, Hillary Clinton had a 340 to 198 advantage in the Electoral College and a 5.5% advantage in the Popular Vote polls. At that point in time she maintained all of the Obama 2012 States (332 Votes) plus North Carolina (+15) while trailing in only Iowa (-6) and the Maine 2nd CD (-1)
On October 17th RCP moved Ohio to Trump (-18)
On October 19th the day of the debate Arizona moved from Trump to Clinton (+11)
Nothing else changed until October 30th, 9 days before the election, Florida moved to Trump (-29) leaving her with a 304-234 advantage. On November 1st and 2nd, Clinton picked up the Maine 2 CD (+1) but Arizona (-11), North Carolina (-15) and Nevada (-6) moved to Trump giving her a 273-265 advantage.
In the final days New Hampshire and Florida flipped back and forth and the Maine 2 CD came back to Trump.
So on 11/8 RCP said 272-266 Clinton in the Electoral Vote.
Actual Election day results only changed the following (in order of the calls):
Nevada (+6) Trump to Clinton 278-260
Pennsylvania (-20) Clinton to Trump 258-280
Wisconsin (-10) Clinton to Trump 248-290
Michigan (-16) Clinton to Trump 232-306
We discussed Wisconsin earlier, Nevada is the only state of the four that RCP moved from one side to the other flipping it three times after Labor Day.
Nevada's final RCP average was 0.8 for Trump. Clinton won by 2.4 or a difference of 3.2.
Pennsylvania's final RCP average was 1.9 for Clinton. Trump won by 0.7 or a difference of 2.6
Michigan's final RCP average was 3.4 for Clinton. Trump won by 0.3 for a difference of 3.7.
The pollsters took a lot of flak for "missing" this election but they were right on for the most part.
The 2016 National Result was off 1.1 points from the RCP polls (3.2 Actual to 2.1 Predicted)
The 2012 National Result was off 3.2 points from the RCP polls (3.9 Actual to 0.7 Predicted)
The 2008 National Result was off 0.4 points from the Rcp polls (7.2 Actual to 7.6 Predicted)
The 2004 National Result was off 0.9 points from the RCP Polls (2.4 Actual to 1.5 Predicted
Reality check is that the polls were fairly accurate in 3 of the last 4 elections and not way off in the 4th. In 2016, the interpretations of a runaway election for Clinton fit the mold of what many wanted to believe, rather than what was actually happening.
Pollsters for the most part do a fairly good job. The media should stop blaming them for being wrong when they weren't.
Saturday, January 14, 2017
The 2016 Election Polls Part 1
I just reviewed some of my posts from the 2012 Elections final week where the polls were all over the place.
In one of the posts I stated that Romney needed to pick up 91 Electoral Votes from states that John McCain had not won in 2008.
My prediction was that the Race started at Romney 179 Obama 359 (taking 2008 after 2010 Census Reapportionment )
In the end Romney Picked up Indiana (11), North Carolina (15) and the Nebraska Congressional District that Obama had won in 2008 (1) for a total 27 to give him a total of 206 vs. Obama's 332.
In 2016, that would be the starting point for Donald Trump vs. Hilary Clinton and her "Blue Wall" with Trump only needing to pick up 64 Electoral Votes to take the White House.
Early in the evening, nothing changed. The first sign of trouble for Clinton came shortly after 10 PM Eastern when Michigan was deemed too close to call (and would eventually not be called for several days), while final polling in Michigan showed Clinton with a 4 or 5 point lead. .
Shortly after that both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were called too close to call. Pennsylvania was runnign about Clinton +2 in the final Real Clear Politics (RCP) averages. While Wisconsin showed Clinton with a more comfortable 6.5 point lead although no polls had been released in the final 4 days of the campaign.
This put a total of 46 Electoral Votes from Obama's 2012 Victory on hold while Trump still had not picked up any states that Obama had won in 2012.
And then the swing states started to be called around 10:30 PM
Ohio and it's 18 Electoral Votes went from 2012 Blue to 2016 Red
Virginia and it's 13 Electoral Votes stayed Blue.
Colorado (9) Stayed Blue also
Shortly after 11 North Carolina's 15 EV stayed Red.
Around 11:30 PM Florida went from Blue to Red, which gave Trump a 29 Electoral Vote pickup.
At this point Trump needed 17 more Electoral Votes from 2012 Blue States, while Clinton had faint hopes still in Georgia (16) and Arizona (11).
Before midnight Iowa (6) went from 2012 Blue to 2016 Red while Georgia stayed Red.
Around 12:30 AM Nevada (6) stayed Blue.
At 2 AM Eastern time, Pennylvania (20) was called for Trump which gave him a net pick-up of 73 Electoral Votes 9 more than he needed to win the election, but Arizona and Alaska (3) had not yet gone his way, so the wait continued.
Maine was called with 3 EV for Clinton and 1 for Trump putting him at 266 Electoral Votes
At 2:30 AM, Wisconsin (1) went to Trump to put him over 270 Electoral Votes with 276.
Eventually Wisonsin, Michigan, Arizona and Alaska would also go to Trump which gave him a total pickup of 100 over Romney in 2012 and finished with 306-232 .
In one of the posts I stated that Romney needed to pick up 91 Electoral Votes from states that John McCain had not won in 2008.
My prediction was that the Race started at Romney 179 Obama 359 (taking 2008 after 2010 Census Reapportionment )
In the end Romney Picked up Indiana (11), North Carolina (15) and the Nebraska Congressional District that Obama had won in 2008 (1) for a total 27 to give him a total of 206 vs. Obama's 332.
In 2016, that would be the starting point for Donald Trump vs. Hilary Clinton and her "Blue Wall" with Trump only needing to pick up 64 Electoral Votes to take the White House.
Early in the evening, nothing changed. The first sign of trouble for Clinton came shortly after 10 PM Eastern when Michigan was deemed too close to call (and would eventually not be called for several days), while final polling in Michigan showed Clinton with a 4 or 5 point lead. .
Shortly after that both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were called too close to call. Pennsylvania was runnign about Clinton +2 in the final Real Clear Politics (RCP) averages. While Wisconsin showed Clinton with a more comfortable 6.5 point lead although no polls had been released in the final 4 days of the campaign.
This put a total of 46 Electoral Votes from Obama's 2012 Victory on hold while Trump still had not picked up any states that Obama had won in 2012.
And then the swing states started to be called around 10:30 PM
Ohio and it's 18 Electoral Votes went from 2012 Blue to 2016 Red
Virginia and it's 13 Electoral Votes stayed Blue.
Colorado (9) Stayed Blue also
Shortly after 11 North Carolina's 15 EV stayed Red.
Around 11:30 PM Florida went from Blue to Red, which gave Trump a 29 Electoral Vote pickup.
At this point Trump needed 17 more Electoral Votes from 2012 Blue States, while Clinton had faint hopes still in Georgia (16) and Arizona (11).
Before midnight Iowa (6) went from 2012 Blue to 2016 Red while Georgia stayed Red.
Around 12:30 AM Nevada (6) stayed Blue.
At 2 AM Eastern time, Pennylvania (20) was called for Trump which gave him a net pick-up of 73 Electoral Votes 9 more than he needed to win the election, but Arizona and Alaska (3) had not yet gone his way, so the wait continued.
Maine was called with 3 EV for Clinton and 1 for Trump putting him at 266 Electoral Votes
At 2:30 AM, Wisconsin (1) went to Trump to put him over 270 Electoral Votes with 276.
Eventually Wisonsin, Michigan, Arizona and Alaska would also go to Trump which gave him a total pickup of 100 over Romney in 2012 and finished with 306-232 .
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)