10/15 Poll Watch Dead Heat

Back to the weekdays and several polls released, and the big takeaway is that the race is virtually a dead heat.  

5 National Polls show the race anywhere from Romney +2 to Obama +3, much of it depending on Democrat  vs. Republican Turnout which we've discussed before.

5 non-Partisan State polls were released from Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado, Florida and Virginia, all within the margin of error.  

USATODAY offers analysis today, showing that Obama's large advantage in the vote of women, has all but disappeared in the 12 swing states, although he maintains an 8 point advantage in the other 38 states and DC.  

"In every poll, we've seen a major surge among women in favorability for Romney" since his strong performance in the first debate, veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says. "Women went into the debate actively disliking Romney, and they came out thinking he might understand their lives and might be able to get something done for them."

While Lake believes Obama retains an edge among women voters, the changed views of Romney could be "a precursor to movement" to the Republican candidate, she says. "It opens them up to take a second look, and that's the danger for Obama."

I think it misses the point somewhat in only applying to Women, for certain, the undecided or at least the soft vote for the candidates is larger than most analysts have been thinking as the poll results have shown much swing in the 10 days since the first debate.  Instead of 3-5% undecided (or 95-97% firm), it may be 10-15% of the voters that can move this election, that would include much more than just women voters.  Two Polls from Florida over the weekend show Obama losing some of the edge in Hispanic Voters with one actually showing Romney ahead in that demographic..  

The conventional thinking on October 3rd was that Obama had this election pretty much won, however the two weeks since the first debate have shown much of an uncertainty in the final results coming 3 weeks from tomorrow. It's pretty obvious that one debate did matter, now we get to see whether another one or two will keep it unsettled or move it decisively one way or the other.