Here We Go Again!

Election day is tomorrow.  Well Really, election day has been going on since sometime in September in Some states.  My "Election Day" was October 16th when my "mail in" vote went into the ballot box at the local Sheriff's office, and was accepted on October 19th.

You can listen to all sorts of prognosticators, pundits and politicians who will tell you that their candidated will win, and in some cases win by a lot, but to me, a lot depends on who actually shows up, and how demographics change. 

For instance, a lot of talk is geared towards enthusiasm, and early ballot results.  There are several things involved with this.  Talking heads talk about the Democrats are returning more ballots than Republicans.  That seems to be the usual case.  But that simply means those people will not vote again before the election.  So how many people who are voting early didn't vote in 2016?  How many people voted on Election Day before?  How many people are voting for the candidate of their party affiliation?  

In 2012, 129 Million people voted down slightly from 131 Million in 2008. In 2016, over 136 million voted. I would expect at least 140-145 million this year, but if it's higher or lower than that, who does it affect?    And how good are the polls?

Final projections are starting to come out today.  Most projections are declaring Biden the winner.  Fivethirtyeight.com who went into election night claiming Clinton had a 71% chance of winning the Presidency and 302 Electoral Votes (EV).    Today they have Biden with a 90% chance of winning the Presidency and projects 350 EV to Biden and 188 to Trump.  270 EV's win the Presidency.

Cook Political Report has Biden with 290 EV.  Politico has Biden winning 279 EV.  RealClearPolitics has polls projecting 335 Biden EV with no toss ups, but 216-125 with 197 Tossups.  

In 2016, on election night I followed this chart as it progressed over the evening of November 8th and morning of November 9, 2016.  Hopefully there will be a similar chart to follow this year, because it shows the points that the races were called and how it affected the odds. 

What I'll predict:  Biden will win the "popular vote", but as we all know that means nothing.  

For electoral votes, let's start with the 2016 Map which ended at 306-232 for Trump.  These 9 Trump States with 169 EV seem to be play:   

Texas (38) 

Florida (29)

Pennsylvania (20)

Ohio (18) 

Georgia (16)

Michigan (16)

North Carolina (15)

Arizona (11)

Wisconsin (10)

Iowa (6)

While only 16 Clinton EV seem to be in play

Minnesota (10) 

Nevada (6)

So 12 states and 2 Congressional Districts (1 in Nebraska and 1 in Maine) that both went to Trump will decide the Presidency.  

The question becomes how accurate are the state polls.  According to RealClearPolitics averages, currently 8 states trend less than 3 points towards one or the other 4 for Trump and 4 for Biden.  The other 4 states show Biden with a lead of 3.6 to 6.6 points.   

So Starting at 306-232 we remove 171 Trump Votes and 16 Clinton Votes from Biden:

Biden 216

Trump 135

Scenario 1--Biden wins 4 states outside MOE

Let's give Biden the 4 states outside the Margin of error of 3. 

Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6)=42

That makes it 

Biden 258

Trump 135

Trump would need 7 of the remaining 8 states (not including Iowa) to win the EV (NE-2 and ME-2 wouldn't matter.

Biden 264

Trump 272

Biden on the other hand would only need to take 1 of those 7 states to win. 

Scenario 2--Trump Sweeps SunBelt States

In this scenario Trump takes NC (15), FL(29) TX(38) GA(16) and Arizona (11) and Biden wins Nevada

Trump 244

Biden 222

Trump would then need Rust Belt States totalling 26 EV.  

PA(20) and any other state

Ohio(18) and Minnesota or Wisconsin(10)

Ohio(18) and Michigan(16)

Biden would need:

Pennsylvania or Ohio with Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota

Pennsylvania, AND Ohio with one other state not including Iowa.

Scenario 3--Trump Sweeps Rust Belt States 

In this scenario Trump takes all 5 Rust Belt States (Pennsylvania (20) Ohio (18) Michigan (16) and Wisconsin or Minnesota (10) and also Iowa (6)

Biden 216

Trump 205

Biden would need 54 votes in the Sunbelt and Nevada and Trump wourld need 65.  115 are available.

I think if Trump does not get Texas, he will lose so let's put that in his column.

Trump 243

Biden 216 

Trump would only need Florida to win, or Georgia and Arizona or North Carolina to win. 

Of course the reality may be a combination of the 3 scenarios. 

The point of this is not that one side or the other will win, but both have multiple plausible ways to win even though the prognosticators again are looking at an overwhelming Democratic victory.  

My prediction remains that the key is the percentage of black and hispanic votes that move from Clinton to Trump.  In 2016 Clinton led the black vote 88-8 and Hispanic 65-29.   This does not mean that Trump needs to win the black or hispanic vote, he just needs to pick up a significant portion of the vote. A 5% move in both groups from D to R would change the vote by about 3 Million votes.   

A further unknown is the affect that various Governors restrictions to the Coronavirus plays out as well as the violence in major cities over the summer in certain states.  It will be interesting to see if this changes for instance Michigan or Wisconsin.  It will also be interesting to see the margins in other states like the West Coast, or the North Atlantic.  It also may have meaning in the Southeast and Texas.

My feeling is that Trump somehow holds on and wins most of the closely polled states in a narrower victory than 2016, but I also feel that if Biden wins, it will be by a very large margin,

Here is my prediction:

Later, I'll explain why I'm so wrong. 

  

2016 Election Polls Part 2

In my earlier post, I went throught the steps to how Trump picked up the Electoral Votes needed to win the Election over where Romney stood in 2012.

The common refrain after the election was that the polls were all wrong.  But were they?

Let's look at the polls from RealClearPolitics.  On Election Day the final projections were 203 For Clinton/Kaine and 164 for Trump/Pence with 14 states as well as 1 of the Maine Congressional districts a toss up.  These total 171 Electoral Votes.

Solid states were 115 to 63 Clinton over Trump
Likely states were 92 to 53 Trump over Clinton
Leaning States were 35 to 9 Clinton over Trump

Of these states only Wisconsin was picked incorrectly.  During the campaign Clinton consistently polled at +5 or better with the final RCP Average coming in at 6.5.   Trump finished +0.7 which was outside the Margin of Error of  all of the final polls which ranged from 1.9-4.9 points.

Keep in mind the Margin of Error is the 95% certainty that the result is within + or -  the value and the MoE.

Clearly either sampling in Wisconsin was bad or a lot of people changed their minds in the final week.

Now let's look at the overall result or what is known as the Popular Vote.  RCP Polls showed Clinton anywhere between 6 points up and 2 points down (1 poll).  The average was 3.3 points, the final result was Clinton +2.1.  The result was within the MoE of all the polls except for IBD/TIPP Tracking (Clinton +1.1 to Trump +5.1) Gravis (Clinton +5 to +3) and Economist/YouGov (which shows Clinton +4 with no MoE)   It should be noted that Rasmussen polling showed Clinton +2 which was the closest raw score to the final result.

The national polls were pretty much right on.

As for the Toss Up states I find it interesting to look at the RCP "No Toss Up" Map  While many websites were predicting a 70%-80% or more probability of  a win for Clinton, this map clearly showed a close race and one or two states could swing the results.

With No Toss ups, RCP showed Clinton winning 272 to 266.  But here is what everyone in the press ignored:

On October 16th, three days before the last debate, Hillary Clinton had a 340 to 198 advantage in the Electoral College and a 5.5% advantage in the Popular Vote polls.  At that point in time she maintained all of the Obama 2012 States (332 Votes) plus North Carolina (+15) while trailing in only Iowa (-6) and the Maine 2nd CD (-1)

On October 17th RCP moved Ohio to Trump (-18)
On October 19th the day of the debate Arizona moved from Trump to Clinton (+11)

Nothing else changed until October 30th, 9 days before the election, Florida moved to Trump (-29)  leaving her with a 304-234 advantage.  On November 1st and 2nd, Clinton picked up the Maine 2 CD (+1) but Arizona (-11), North Carolina (-15) and Nevada (-6) moved to Trump giving her a 273-265 advantage.

In the final days New Hampshire and Florida flipped back and forth and the Maine 2 CD came back to Trump.

So on 11/8 RCP said 272-266 Clinton in the Electoral Vote.

Actual Election day results only changed the following (in order of the calls):
Nevada (+6) Trump to Clinton  278-260
Pennsylvania  (-20) Clinton to Trump 258-280
Wisconsin (-10) Clinton to Trump 248-290
Michigan (-16) Clinton to Trump 232-306


We discussed Wisconsin earlier, Nevada is the only state of the four that RCP moved from one side to the other flipping it three times after Labor Day.

Nevada's final RCP average was 0.8 for Trump.  Clinton won by 2.4 or a difference of 3.2.
Pennsylvania's final RCP average was 1.9 for Clinton.  Trump won by 0.7 or a difference of 2.6
Michigan's final RCP average was 3.4 for Clinton.  Trump won by 0.3 for a difference of 3.7.

The pollsters took a lot of flak for "missing" this election but they were right on for the most part.

The 2016 National Result was off 1.1 points from the RCP polls (3.2 Actual to 2.1 Predicted)
The 2012 National Result was off 3.2 points from the RCP polls (3.9 Actual to 0.7 Predicted)
The 2008 National Result was off 0.4 points from the Rcp polls  (7.2 Actual to 7.6 Predicted)
The 2004 National Result was off 0.9 points from the RCP Polls (2.4 Actual to 1.5 Predicted

Reality check is that the polls were fairly accurate in 3 of the last 4 elections and not way off in the 4th.  In 2016,  the interpretations of a runaway election for Clinton fit the mold of what many wanted to believe, rather than what was actually happening.

Pollsters for the most part do a fairly good job.  The media should stop blaming them for being wrong when they weren't.

 

The 2016 Election Polls Part 1

I just reviewed some of my posts from the 2012 Elections final week where the polls were all over the place.

In one of the posts I stated that Romney needed to pick up 91 Electoral Votes from states that John McCain had not won in 2008.

My prediction was that the Race started at Romney 179 Obama 359 (taking 2008 after 2010 Census Reapportionment )

In the end Romney Picked up Indiana (11), North Carolina (15) and the Nebraska Congressional District that Obama had won in 2008 (1) for a total 27 to give him a total of 206 vs. Obama's 332.

In 2016, that would be the starting point for Donald Trump vs. Hilary Clinton and her "Blue Wall" with Trump only needing to pick up  64 Electoral Votes to take the White House.

Early in the evening, nothing changed.  The first sign of trouble for Clinton came shortly after 10 PM Eastern when Michigan was deemed too close to call (and would eventually not be called for several days), while final polling in Michigan showed Clinton with a 4 or 5 point lead. .

Shortly after that both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were called too close to call.  Pennsylvania was runnign about Clinton +2 in the final Real Clear Politics (RCP) averages.  While Wisconsin showed Clinton with a more comfortable 6.5 point lead although no polls had been released in the final 4 days of the campaign.

This put a total of 46 Electoral Votes from Obama's 2012 Victory on hold while Trump still had not picked up any states that Obama had won in 2012.

And then the swing states started to be called around 10:30 PM

Ohio and it's 18 Electoral Votes went from 2012 Blue to 2016 Red

Virginia and it's 13 Electoral Votes stayed Blue.

Colorado (9) Stayed Blue also

Shortly after 11 North Carolina's 15 EV stayed Red.

Around 11:30 PM Florida went from Blue to Red, which gave Trump a 29 Electoral Vote pickup.

At this point Trump needed 17 more Electoral Votes from 2012 Blue States, while Clinton had faint hopes still in Georgia (16) and Arizona (11).

Before midnight Iowa (6) went from 2012 Blue to 2016 Red while Georgia stayed Red.

Around 12:30 AM Nevada (6) stayed Blue.



At 2 AM Eastern time, Pennylvania (20) was called for Trump which gave him a net pick-up of 73 Electoral Votes 9 more than he needed to win the election, but Arizona and Alaska (3) had not yet gone his way, so the wait continued.

Maine was called with 3 EV for Clinton and 1 for Trump putting him at 266 Electoral Votes

At 2:30 AM, Wisconsin (1) went to Trump to put him over 270 Electoral Votes with 276.

Eventually Wisonsin, Michigan, Arizona and Alaska would also go to Trump which gave him a total pickup of 100 over Romney in 2012 and finished with 306-232 .

Somebody's Going to Be Really Disappointed

Three days out, and it's still the same, although the polls have moved slightly toward President Obama, it still appears to be a dead heat.

There is no question that the polls are skewed, the question is are they skewed right or left.   Too many Democrats, not enough Hispanics?  The problem as I see it is that a many pollsters are. historically off by 2-4 points in their final tally (and a couple are dead on usually.)  But in that case a poll that is +1.9 for Obama and actuals are +0.1 for Romney, are not really wrong.  We've talked about it before but if the Margin Of Error is even as low as 2 on a poll, that means there could be up to a 4 point swing and still be in the MOE.

This is why in today's RealClearPolitics Roundup, the partisans are still predicting victory.

Here's a sample of the headlines:
Mitt's Many Mistakes Will Doom Him - Robert Shrum, The Daily Beast
Bottom Line: Romney 315, Obama 223 - Michael Barone, DC Examiner
Time Is Running Out for Mitt Romney - Charles Blow, New York Times
Gallup Points to Very Long Election Night for Dems - Michael Franc, NRO
Obama in Good Shape With 3 Days Left - Greg Sargent, Washington Post
Au Revoir, Mr. President - Emmett Tyrrell, The American Spectator

Meanwhile two polls in Florida show different results:  Mason Dixon Romney +6 NBC/WSJ Obama +2.

I had planned to make a prediction, but I have no idea at this point.  And with very few National Polls this week, especially tracking, because of the storm, this Election Night could be very interesting.  But whatever the result, there are going to be lots of surprised and disappointed people on Wednesday as both sides are truly believing in the victory of their guy.

Silly Week

It gets sillier and sillier every day.  This Presidential Election is impossible to predict because the polls don't have a consistent trend to one side or the other.  Add to that the interruption by Super Storm Sandy which caused two tracking organizations to suspend polling for at least 2 days, and we may not have a conventional "Final" poll next Monday.    Gallup uses 7 days, and will either have a Wed-Sun mix, or Sun-Mon-Wed-Sun final poll.  Investor's Business Daily suspended for 3 days, and so could have a final 4 day poll, but not a track.

So with that, much speculation has occured on a split Popular/Electoral verdict, with the Right arguing why the National Polls are the trend, and the Left touting the state polls as disproving the National Polls.

I do have to credit Obama partisan Joe Klein with a level-head approach:  anyone who claims to know who is going to win is blowing smoke.

In the meantime, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and yes Minnesota apparently are getting more spotlight from the campaigns.  Stay tuned...

It's Over, He's the Winner!

The propaganda stepped up today with partisans from both sides seemingly seriously claiming indisputable victory 11 days out from the election.  Mostly they do it by throwing out polls that they don't like and using the ones that they do like.

But much of this is more propaganda, or put more nicely--Spin.  The trend continues to be that Romney leads among independents, but the big question is how much?    The answers from the poll vary by about 2% up to 20+%    Some polls show Romney getting more support from Women closing the so-called
"gender gap"  which is a misnomer, but it's not worth getting into the semantics.

It is generally agreed that Obama has a more solid ground game especially in Early Voting, but both sides are also claiming better numbers for themselves over 2008, and worse numbers for their opponent.

After November 6th, we will be able to look at the results and compare the poll results, but it's obvious that many polls will be "wrong" but it's still possible to be within their Margin of Error.  Somebody will also claim victory as the best result compared to actuals, but this year more than most, I think they are all off at one point in the campaign.  

10/25 Poll Watch

5 Polls released today nationally, and Romney is in the lead in 4 of them.  IBD shows Obama ahead by 2, while Gallup and Rasmussen have Romney ahead by 3.  ABC also has Romney +3 which is a 6 point movement towards Romney since 10/13.   In addition the AP shows Romney +2, a 3 point move in Romney's direction since mid-September.

In the States, Public Policy Polling shows a tie in North Carolina, which was enough for RealClearPolitics to push North Carolina back into the tossup category.  This poll comes at the same time that the Obama campaign has pulled their ad buy in the state.

PPP also shows Obama up by 4 in Colorado.  Rasmussen shows Romney up 2 in Virginia and Gravvis has Romney up 1 in Floriday.  Rasmussen also shows Obama up 5 in Pennsylvania.