The 2016 Election Polls Part 1

I just reviewed some of my posts from the 2012 Elections final week where the polls were all over the place.

In one of the posts I stated that Romney needed to pick up 91 Electoral Votes from states that John McCain had not won in 2008.

My prediction was that the Race started at Romney 179 Obama 359 (taking 2008 after 2010 Census Reapportionment )

In the end Romney Picked up Indiana (11), North Carolina (15) and the Nebraska Congressional District that Obama had won in 2008 (1) for a total 27 to give him a total of 206 vs. Obama's 332.

In 2016, that would be the starting point for Donald Trump vs. Hilary Clinton and her "Blue Wall" with Trump only needing to pick up  64 Electoral Votes to take the White House.

Early in the evening, nothing changed.  The first sign of trouble for Clinton came shortly after 10 PM Eastern when Michigan was deemed too close to call (and would eventually not be called for several days), while final polling in Michigan showed Clinton with a 4 or 5 point lead. .

Shortly after that both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were called too close to call.  Pennsylvania was runnign about Clinton +2 in the final Real Clear Politics (RCP) averages.  While Wisconsin showed Clinton with a more comfortable 6.5 point lead although no polls had been released in the final 4 days of the campaign.

This put a total of 46 Electoral Votes from Obama's 2012 Victory on hold while Trump still had not picked up any states that Obama had won in 2012.

And then the swing states started to be called around 10:30 PM

Ohio and it's 18 Electoral Votes went from 2012 Blue to 2016 Red

Virginia and it's 13 Electoral Votes stayed Blue.

Colorado (9) Stayed Blue also

Shortly after 11 North Carolina's 15 EV stayed Red.

Around 11:30 PM Florida went from Blue to Red, which gave Trump a 29 Electoral Vote pickup.

At this point Trump needed 17 more Electoral Votes from 2012 Blue States, while Clinton had faint hopes still in Georgia (16) and Arizona (11).

Before midnight Iowa (6) went from 2012 Blue to 2016 Red while Georgia stayed Red.

Around 12:30 AM Nevada (6) stayed Blue.



At 2 AM Eastern time, Pennylvania (20) was called for Trump which gave him a net pick-up of 73 Electoral Votes 9 more than he needed to win the election, but Arizona and Alaska (3) had not yet gone his way, so the wait continued.

Maine was called with 3 EV for Clinton and 1 for Trump putting him at 266 Electoral Votes

At 2:30 AM, Wisconsin (1) went to Trump to put him over 270 Electoral Votes with 276.

Eventually Wisonsin, Michigan, Arizona and Alaska would also go to Trump which gave him a total pickup of 100 over Romney in 2012 and finished with 306-232 .